EvaluatePharma has released EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2018, Outlook to 2024 based on the assessment and analysis of trends in prescription drug sales, patent risk, R&D spend, brand, market share, and innovation of the world’s leading 7,000 pharmaceutical and biotech companies, to forecast the fastest growing companies and varieties by 2024.

According to the forecast of EvaluatePharma, the pharmaceutical market is going out of the sluggish state following the financial crisis and accelerating growth, to an compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6% between now and 2024. Much of the expansion of the market will be driven by a large number of unmet medical needs, for example, according to the report, the orphan drug market will reach USD 262 billion in 2024, accounting for 20% of the total prescription drug market. The launch of innovative therapies, including gene and cell therapies, as well as an increasing supply of pharmaceutical products globally will help fuel progress in the pharmaceutical product market. Global prescription drug market is expected to reach USD 1.2 trillion in 2024.

EvaluatePharma forecasts that Novartis will be the leading prescription drug company in 2024 with sales of USD 53.2 billion, followed by Pfizer and Roche; compared to 2017, Pfizer will drop 1 position to rank second.

Novartis’ leading position is thanks to the strength of the company’s diverse portfolio of innovative drugs which span multiple areas, biosimilars, and generics. While only three Novartis products (Cosentyx, Entresto, Jakafi) are forecast to be among the world’s top 50 selling drugs in 2024, the company is forecast to have 10 products with sales over USD 1 billion, and a further 12 products with sales over USD 500 million. Additionally, Novartis continues to make strategic investments to remain at the forefront of emerging therapeutic areas. Kymriah was the first FDA approved CAR-T therapy and the company has also acquired AveXis, a leading gene therapy company, for USD 8.7 billion.

Pfizer secures the second place based on its two key innovative brands in oncology (Ibrance, Bavencio) and immunology (Xeljanz, Eucrisa), biosimilars, and off-patent drug portfolio. Its prescription drug sales are forecast to reach USD 51.2 billion in 2024.

Roche ranks third on the heels of Pfizer, with sales forecast to be USD 50.6 billion. Oncology still dominates Roche’s portfolio, with Tecentriq being its leading single growth driver, and the company is increasingly relying on non-oncology assets to drive growth with products like Ocrevus and Hemlibra.

J & J is forecast to obtain prescription drug sales of USD 47.4 billion and rank fourth, however, it will have a faster CAGR than any of its top 3 rivals, with better than expected performance from its leading drug, Stelara. The remaining companies in the top 10 are forecast to be Sanofi, GSK, Merck, AbbVie, AstraZeneca, and BMS, with prescription drug sales of separately USD 44.2 billion, USD 38.4 billion, USD 38.0 billion, USD 37.2 billion, USD 31.7 billion, and USD 28.7 billion.

Amongst the top 20, Celgene will have the highest CAGR and is expected to go from 21st in 2017 to 13th in 2024 based on revenue expansion in oncology and immunology.

Notably, should Takeda complete its intended acquisition of Shire, the combined entity would enter the top 10.

World Prescription Drug Sales(2017-2024)

Source: EvaluatePharma’s World Preview 2018, Outlook to 2024

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